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Issue Update: Soy Trade Outlook for May

May 03, 2018

April was a busy month in trade for soy leaders, specifically on the Section 301 tariffs, and May promises to be just as active.

The American Soybean Association (ASA) has heard reports that China is actively trying to purchase less U.S. soybeans amid the rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China. This type of trade disruption demonstrates one of ASA’s primary fears, which is that even the threat of tariffs between the two countries is changing purchasing patterns and shifting Chinese consumers away from U.S. sourced soybeans. This validates the need for the U.S. and the Chinese governments to reach an agreement to avert tariffs and diminish further market disruptions.

What’s to come in May 2018:

Tariffs

  • The section 301 process will continue to unfold in May. On May 11, the 30-day comment period for the section 301 investigation will end, and on May 15 the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) will hold a public hearing to review the comments. (ASA will be submitting comments to the USTR process).
  • After the 30-day comment period, USTR and the White House will have 180 days to implement the proposed tariffs. As such, it is vital that the U.S. and China reach an agreement to avert the tariffs.
  • On May 3, a seven-person U.S. delegation is in China, aiming to strike a deal that eliminates the need for tariffs on as much as $150 billion in imported Chinese goods. The group will include Commerce Department Secretary Wilbur Ross, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow, Everett Eissenstat, deputy director of the White House National Economic Council, and White House trade adviser Peter Navarro. Terry Branstad, the U.S. ambassador to China, will also be part of the discussions. Members of the delegation will meet with Chinese officials starting on May 3 to discuss the trade relationship between the two countries.

NAFTA

  • The next round of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) talks begin on May 7 in Washington, D.C. between Canada, Mexico and the U.S. It is imperative that the three countries reach an agreement on NAFTA 2.0, as we are running up against the Mexican Presidential election set to occur in July. If the negotiations cannot conclude before the Mexican elections, it may be difficult to resume them until after the U.S. midterm elections.

TPP

  • In April, President Trump directed NEC Director Larry Kudlow and Ambassador Lighthizer to investigate the possibility of reentering the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). While no further information on this effort has been forthcoming it does signal some willingness by the Administration to at least consider the merits of TPP reentry.

MAP, FMD, CREAATE ACT

  • As the House and Senate move forward with the Farm Bill in their respective chambers, ASA continues to advocate for a doubling of funding for the Market Access Program (MAP) and Foreign Market Development (FMD) programs. We encourage ASA members to ask their Representatives in the House and Senate to cosponsor the Cultivating Revitalization by Expanding American Agriculture Trade and Exports Act (CREAATE Act).
  • Take Action: The CREAATE Act needs bipartisan co-sponsorship. Senators Ernst and Collins have already joined, but we are seeking additional republican co-sponsorship for the Bill. We urge soy growers to visit the Soy Action Center and reach out to all of your Republican Senators with this ask.

What ASA President John Heisdorffer said: “The work ASA, state affiliates and grower leaders have done this month— from arranging and fielding thousands of interviews and amplifying messages on social media, to participating in ASA’s fly in which visited 49 Congressional offices last week— has been vital in sharing soy’s story in calling for the administration to rethink the tariffs and instead allow soy be part of a solution.” Read more.