Despite bullish usage data, long-term demand and supply concerns continue to loom large over the soybean market

By Jacquie Holland, ASA Economist

Soybean stocks data from the USDA Sep. 30 Quarterly Grains report did not necessarily harm soybean prices, but it did not provide any lifelines, either.

USDA updated 2024 production totals in the report series, adding 158,000 more harvested acres to 2024 production and raising the total harvested acreage to 86.2 million acres. As a result, the 2024 U.S. soybean harvest grew by 7.7 million bushels to 4.374 billion bushels.

It is standard practice in balance sheet accounting to reconcile ending stocks and usage data against beginning supplies. Additionally, USDA reviewed farm program administrative data in this reconciliation process, which provides additional insights into supply and demand dynamics in the soybean sector.

The larger 2024 soybean production number was not a surprise to markets. Pre-report analyst estimates for the figure ranged between 4.35 billion and 4.391 billion bushels, so USDA’s figure was well within the anticipated trade range.

The slightly larger 2024 harvest did not appear to weigh down prices until about 10 minutes following the report’s release. Until that point, soybean prices were more impacted by USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks data for soybeans during the Sep. 30 trading session.

Quarterly Grain Stocks prevent further soy losses

In the first few minutes following USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report publication, November 2025 soybean prices jumped up from $10.04/bu. to $10.06/bu., paring back some of the earlier morning’s losses.

On the surface, USDA’s finding of 316.5 million bushels on hand on Sep. 1, 2025 suggested that summer soybean usage rates were higher than previously expected, especially after accounting for the 8% annual drop in stock volume from the prior year. The pre-report analyst forecasts ranged between 295 million and 360 million bushels with an average guess of 323 million bushels, so the Sep. 1 stocks value was initially bullish for the soybean complex.

Factoring in 7.7 million bushels of additional 2024 production and a minor downward revision to Jun. 1, 2025, inventories, June through August (Q4) soybean disappearance clocked out at 691.1 million bushels – a 6.5-million-bushel increase in consumption from pre-report trader expectations and a three-year usage high for Q4.

Despite crush plants taking longer maintenance downtimes this summer, in addition to China’s absence from the U.S. soy market, added crush capacity and an uptick in export volumes to Mexico, the European Union and Egypt supported the higher-than-expected Q4 soybean usage rate.

It all shakes out in the wash

The Quarterly Grain Stocks report left soybean market players feeling warm and fuzzy for 10 minutes or so, following its release. But the larger 2024 harvest, expectations for record 2025 yields, ongoing demand concerns from China and broad financial market jitters about an impending government shutdown snapped soybean traders back to reality in a matter of minutes.

Additionally, an extra 207 million bushels of corn found on hand as of Sep. 1 stunned the markets and pushed nearby December 2025 corn futures prices $0.06/bu. (1.1%) lower during Tuesday’s trading session to $4.165/bu. by the end of the day. The large corn stocks finding weighed heavily on the entire ag commodity marketplace, including soybeans.

The nearby November 2025 futures contract closed Tuesday’s trading session $0.0875/bu. (0.3%) lower to $10.0175/bu. While the losses were deemed minimal, the continued price drop below the $10/bu.-benchmark during Wednesday’s trading session suggests markets were relatively unimpressed with soybean findings in Tuesday’s USDA reports after the dust settled.

Instead, the market seems to be more concerned with forward-facing issues, including U.S. export viability in the current tariff environment, growing competition from South America and lack of soybean storage capacity for beans currently being harvested. While the usage rates were reassuring, growing domestic and global supplies seem more likely to loom large over the soybean complex during the ongoing harvest season.

Despite being initially bullish, USDA’s Sep. 30 report series did little to reduce consumption and supply concerns in the soy market. It was not the price bloodbath farmers had feared leading up to the report, but it was also not a lifeline for profitable prices, either.