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May 13, 2025
By Allison Jenkins
Credit: Allison Jenkins
There’s a theory fluttering about in both science and popular culture called the “butterfly effect,” the idea that small, seemingly trivial events may ultimately result in something with much larger consequences. For example, if a butterfly flaps its wings in India, theoretically that tiny change in air pressure could eventually cause a tornado in Iowa.
The concept was proposed in the 1960s by Edward Lorenz, a meteorologist who was studying weather patterns. In trying to devise predictive models, he determined that long-range forecasting was virtually impossible. In nature’s incredible complexity, there are simply too many variables and interconnections.
Farmers and conservationists are literally dealing with a butterfly effect right now when it comes to the dwindling population of monarchs. The iconic orange-and-black butterflies annually travel through the heart of soybean country on a remarkable 3,000-mile migration from Mexico to Canada. Their numbers have plummeted by an estimated 80% since the 1990s, a decrease attributed to many factors that include drought, lack of nectar resources and habitat loss, particularly milkweed, the monarch caterpillar’s sole food source.
The monarch population has now reached a level that scientists say is unsustainable unless the trend reverses. In response, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has recommended protection under the Endangered Species Act, which would prohibit actions that could harm the butterfly or its habitat.
The decision could have far-reaching consequences for the agricultural industry, particularly in land-use practices, pesticide regulations and crop management, says Shelby Hagenauer, American Farm Bureau senior director of government affairs and the agency’s ESA lead.
“Pollinators, and particularly monarchs, are a part of our lives,” Hagenauer says. “Farmers support this species and want it to thrive. But we also need to make sure that regulations are practical, and that agriculture continues to be robust so we can provide food, clothing and fuel for our country and the world.”
The monarch’s plight draws attention to the interdependence of pollinators and agriculture and underscores the need for conservation efforts that engage landowners, conservationists and policymakers alike, says Kyle Kunkler, American Soybean Association senior director of government affairs.
“Monarchs have the potential to change everything,” Kunkler says. “They’re beautiful, they’re well loved, and they’re everywhere. The good news is we think there is a way to have this conversation about an ESA listing decision that would not disrupt agriculture and work for monarchs at the same time.”
Keeping the monarch off the endangered species roster has been a top concern for the agricultural community for more than a decade, ever since the USFWS began conducting a review of the butterfly’s status in 2014. In 2020, the service concluded that a listing was “warranted but precluded,” meaning there were higher priorities at the time.
In December 2024, the USFWS issued its proposal, which would list the monarch as “threatened” under the ESA’s 4(d) rule. This special designation provides flexibility that allows for certain types of activities that do not significantly harm the species. For agriculture, those exceptions would likely include routine practices such as plowing, drilling, disking, mowing, controlling weeds, prescribed burning, livestock grazing and ranching.
“If the monarch were listed as endangered, as opposed to threatened with a 4(d) rule, then anybody who killed one accidentally or intentionally would be liable for a ‘take’ as it’s called under the ESA,” Hagenauer says. “I simply don’t expect that. It’s just not feasible.”
The final decision is subject to a public comment period, which was recently extended to May 19. As of press time, nearly 150,000 comments had been submitted.
“When you think about a national migratory insect, it’s such a complicated listing,” Hagenauer says. “The Fish and Wildlife Service at some point will end the comment period, and after that, they have to look through all the comments and decide whether they need to update this proposed 4(d) rule or propose a final listing. Potentially, they could repropose a 4(d) rule and then open that back up again for another public comment period.”
Agricultural organizations such as ASA have been actively engaged in the public comment process to ensure the 4(d) rule adequately addresses their needs while also supporting monarch conservation efforts, but Hagenauer says farmers need to tell their stories, too. Information about how to submit comments can be found on regulations.gov by searching for docket number FWS-R3-ES-2024-0137.
“It’s critically important to consider commenting on this individually in addition to working with our associations on it, because everybody has their own story about what they’re doing with pollinators on their land and what the impacts might be,” Hagenauer said. “So, I encourage farmer-members to put pen to paper. It doesn’t have to be extensive, but making our voices heard about the ways agriculture supports these species on our farms, on our lands, is an important part of this process.”
Pictured is part of a six-acre pollinator plot that Charles Atkinson established on his Kansas farm with financial assistance from the Conservation Reserve Program. Credit: Charles Atkinson
Kansas row crop and beef cattle farmer Charles Atkinson is one of those farmers sharing his voice of experience. He served for nine years on the ASA Board of Directors until this past December and sat on the association’s conservation technology committee. The dwindling monarch population and potential impacts to agriculture from an endangered species designation were key issues tackled by Atkinson and his fellow board members, including the late Wayne Fredericks of Iowa. Fredericks was a staunch proponent of conservation, particularly pollinator habitat (see sidebar below).
“Depending on how the listing is written, it could have a major impact on agriculture,” Atkinson says. “We may lose some of our herbicides or opportunities of when and where we can use herbicides. People need to understand, we’re not out there just throwing chemicals around. It’s a prescription. I’ve been no-tilling for 30 years, and I’ve actually used less herbicide than when we were complete conventional till.”
Back to the “butterfly effect,” the unintended consequences of an endangered species listing for the monarch could, in fact, increase the need for pesticides and negate years of conservation work.
“If they take some of our crop protection sources away, that means we’re possibly going to have more weed issues that could keep us from no-tilling,” Atkinson said. “If we have to go back to conventional till, everything we gained will be lost. And now we’re going to have other issues like soil erosion and nitrate runoff. We need every tool available to us to protect the environment.”
Balancing conservation with agricultural production has long been a priority for Atkinson, who previously worked as a USDA soil conservationist in addition to farming. He says education and understanding can go a long way toward protecting the interests of both producers and pollinators.
“I have always believed that we have to be in harmony with nature, and pollinators are a very important part of our farming operation,” Atkinson said. “They interact with everything that we grow. We need to help people understand that there are little things we can do that could keep from having the monarch listed.”
Maintaining wildlife habitat, following best management practices in pesticide use and reducing unnecessary mowing are some of the most important actions that farmers and landowners can take, Atkinson explained. He also pointed out that several Departments of Transportation in states along the monarch migration flyway have taken steps to increase pollinator plots, such as planting wildflowers in medians and not mowing rights-of-way and road ditches when milkweed is growing.
“Yes, we can regulate all we want, but we should be able to balance our own operations to where we don’t need those regulations,” Atkinson says. “I’ve identified places on our farm where milkweed grows, so we avoid spraying those areas. When we mow, we leave a strip here and there for the pollinators. If we all do a little something, we can provide the habitat they need.”
Many USDA cost-share programs and public-private initiatives exist to help growers install and maintain pollinator plots. Seven years ago, Atkinson established a six-acre pollinator plot with financial assistance from the Conservation Reserve Program and says he’s seen a definite uptick in butterflies, bees and other beneficial insects as a result.
And though the monarch is the symbol of pollinator conservation, it’s not the only species in decline. Among those currently being reviewed for ESA protections are the Morrison, Southern Plains and Suckley’s cuckoo bumblebees and the large marble butterfly.
“We talk about monarchs and honey bees but there are other pollinators out there as well. Some actually burrow in the ground, so they like clumps of grass to hide in during the day and come out at night,” Atkinson says. “There are lots of other insects that act as pollinators for our crops.”
The beauty of a pollinator plot, Atkinson says, is that they can be placed on marginal, unproductive ground without sacrificing production of cash crops. His plot covers a rocky hillside with less-than-ideal soil structure, where planting corn, soybeans or wheat was “a waste of money,” he says.
“Wayne Fredericks and I gave a presentation about pollinator plots at an ASA meeting several years ago, and one of the first things they hit us with was, ‘I’m not giving up any ground for this.’ Our response was, ‘Do you have any places that your sprayer or tillage equipment can’t reach? Odd corners that do nothing but grow weeds?’” Atkinson says. “Well, if it's just going to grow weeds, why don’t you grow pollinator mixes? It doesn’t have to be a big acreage. Just a half-acre here or there will make a difference.”
Kunkler agrees that part of the problem is a lack of understanding. To that end, ASA has partnered with organizations such as Farmers for Monarchs, the BeSure! stewardship campaign, the Pollinator Partnership and North American Pollinator Protection Campaign to provide education and find solutions to strengthen monarch populations and habitat. Many state-level soybean associations are also involved in local and regional efforts to develop strategies that will aid pollinators in agricultural landscapes.
“Adopting better practices can reduce the impact to pollinator species,” Kunkler said. “It can be something as simple as mowing around that patch of milkweed you see alongside the creek bed or road ditch. It also means minimizing any sort of potential spray drift risks that could be detrimental to beneficial insects. Having that information empowers you to be a better conservationist.”
Kunkler says he believes these proactive efforts are beginning to have a positive effect. In early March, the latest population survey of eastern monarchs—a key indicator of the species’ health—showed that their numbers nearly doubled in 2025. The butterflies overwintering in central Mexico's forests occupied 4.42 acres, up from 2.22 acres the previous year. Scientists attribute the increase primarily to improved weather conditions in the butterflies’ migration route along with conservation efforts.
“That’s a fantastic sign that the monarch seems to be doing increasingly well, and we’re hopeful that a lot of voluntary practices farmers are engaging in are helping to pay off,” Kunkler said. “We know these things ebb and flow but, at the same time, to see such a huge jump in the acres of over-wintering monarchs is an encouraging sign that something is working.”
While this increase is a welcome change, monarch populations are still much lower than what is considered sustainable. Atkinson noted it will take a comprehensive effort from not only farmers but also municipalities, educational institutions, departments of transportation and the general public to develop the habitat needed to support the monarch’s population rebound and keep this beloved butterfly off the endangered list.
“It’s not just agriculture,” Atkinson said. “Everyone has to have a part in this.”
More information on the proposed ESA listing, pollinator conservation and how farmers and landowners can help can be found online at farmersformonarchs.org.
Wayne Fredericks farmed in Osage, Iowa.
So many ASA board members, staff and others throughout agriculture will never see a butterfly without thinking fondly of Wayne Fredericks, a true pioneer and champion for the butterflies, bees and other pollinators. Sometimes lovingly referred to as “the butterfly man,” Fredericks was a longtime ASA director and devoted conservation advocate who passed away in February 2024.
Wayne’s legacy of conservation leadership in the soybean industry is remembered and serves as a guidepost for future generations of farmers and environmentalists. He began farming in 1973 after graduating from Iowa State University, where he focused on animal science. Wayne often referred to himself as the “accidental conservationist” and noted that for 20 years he believed a fully conventional tillage operation was the only way to operate. When Mother Nature stepped in and upended his plans, he explored other methods and “accidentally” turned into a lifetime proponent of all things conservation—including pollinator habitat, strip-till, no-till, cover crops and more.
Not only was Fredericks dedicated to making these improvements on his own land, but also helping other farmers successfully find ways to adopt practices that could build soil, improve water and air quality, and most importantly, improve their way of life.
Wayne and his wife, Ruth, spent many years working on trials with the Iowa Soybean Association On Farm Network and ISA Environmental Programs and Services to implement positive environmental practices on their farm. Their goal was to find productive, profitable, sustainable crop production practices that work while keeping soil, water, and air quality at the forefront.
The Fredericks’ conservation practices extended beyond their crop fields. In 2014, Wayne enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program to improve his operation and provide a wonderful habitat for monarch butterflies and other pollinators. Wayne served on the ASA board from 2015 to 2023, during which time he did countless outreach on conservation. Likewise, he advocated for understanding and awareness of farmers’ roles in stewardship as an ASA Conservation Champion. Wayne was a longtime ASA representative on Farmers for Monarchs, an initiative of the Keystone Policy Center.
In 2022, Wayne and Ruth received the ASA National Conservation Legacy Award for their outstanding environmental and conservation achievements. Wayne also received the 2022 Iowa Soybean Association’s Policy Champion Award, recognizing his commitment to advancing policy and regulatory issues benefiting the soybean industry. The Iowa Soybean Association also presented Wayne with its 2024 Legacy of Leadership Award.
Fredericks’ efforts and loyalty to both ASA and agriculture conservation are still revered and pointed to as an example today. He is remembered both as a person and as a catalyst for inspiring our industry to do better and do more.
