By Jacquie Holland, ASA Economist

It’s been a while since USDA published a “boring” WASDE report. While we economists love market volatility, the June 2025 WASDE report provided the policy-whiplashed soybean market a short-lived break.

USDA left both 2024/25 and 2025/26 U.S. soybean balance sheets unchanged, with season-average prices held steady at $9.95/bu. and $10.25/bu., respectively. Pre-report market forecasts did not anticipate any major changes to either balance sheet, offering little support to futures prices on Thursday.

Prices on the Chicago Board of Trade ignored the quiet WASDE, responding instead to concerns about impending biofuels policies, sluggish export data and a sudden drop in the cash markets. Nearby July 2025 soybean futures closed Thursday’s trading session $0.0825/bu. lower to $10.4225/bu. while new crop November 2025 futures shed $0.02/bu. to $10.2725/bu.

USDA also left production estimates for 2024/25 South American soybean harvests unchanged at 169 MMT for Brazil and 49 MMT for Argentina. Brazil’s CONAB projected 2024/25 Brazilian production at 169.6 MMT prior to the WASDE release. Brazilian and Argentine harvests for 2025/26 were also unchanged from last month’s WASDE.

USDA raised 2025/26 global soybean ending stocks by 1 MMT to 125.3 MMT, reflecting slower 2024/25 Chinese crush paces through the current marketing year and leading to an increase in Chinese stockpiles headed into 2025/26.

Small soyoil changes

Despite a few minor changes, U.S. soybean oil stocks and expected prices for 2024/25 and 2025/26 went unchanged. USDA cut 200 million lbs. of 2024/25 biofuel consumption of soybean oil but added that same volume to the export forecast. The surge in export volumes prompted USDA to increase the season-average price for soybean oil in 2024/25 by $0.01/lb to $0.46/lb. USDA held prices for 2025/26 soybean oil steady at $0.46/lb.

Soybean oil prices were largely unbothered by the minor WASDE revisions, with the July 2025 contract closing down 0.85% to $0.4761/lb. on concerns that EPA would set blending volumes lower than the industry ask of 5.25 billion gallons.

USDA also noted expectations for increased palm oil production in Malaysia this year and headed into the 2025/26 marketing year, reflecting a better-than-expected recovery following widespread flooding earlier this year. The higher palm oil production forecasts will keep global palm oil prices competitive with its soybean oil counterparts, which could limit U.S. export volumes in the months ahead.

Uneventful soymeal findings 

It was a quiet WASDE for soymeal as well, with 2024/25 ending stocks and prices unchanged at 450,000 short tons and $300/ton, respectively. USDA made accounting revisions to the old crop balance sheet, adding 50,000 short tons to 2024/25 import volumes and 50,000 short tons to domestic disappearance. The supply and demand adjustments offset one another, leading to relatively small price action for soymeal following the report’s release.

USDA also kept 2025/26 production and usage estimates unchanged for soymeal, resulting in an ending stocks value of 475 short tons and a season-average price of $310/ton. Nearby July 2025 futures prices in Chicago inched up 0.1% following the report’s release Thursday but this likely reflected losses in the soybean oil complex and reduced production prospects for soymeal on the lower RVO expectations anticipated by traders.