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Apr 13, 2026
By Jacquie Holland, ASA Economist
For a second consecutive month, USDA’s updates to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report featured revisions to all three balance sheets within the soy complex that prompted bullish price signals from the futures market.
USDA’s revisions to the soybean balance sheet were minor, but those changes triggered significant shifts for the soybean oil and soymeal balance sheets. USDA moved 35 million bushels (nearly 1 MMT) of exports from the U.S.’s 2025/26 soybean balance sheet into the crush category.
The move left ending stocks unchanged, but consistently high recent prices led USDA to increase the season average price received by farmers for soybeans by a dime to $10.30/bu. May 2026 futures prices closed $0.035/bu. (0.3%) higher on Thursday afternoon to $11.655/bu. while new crop November 2026 futures inched about a penny higher to $11.525/bu.
Since the March 2026 WASDE, the EPA published final guidance on 2026 and 2027 renewable volume obligations (RVOs), which signaled more biomass-based diesel (BBD) would be added to the U.S. fuel supply.
Additionally, during the time between monthly WASDE releases, soybean oil prices rose to three-year highs, tracking gains in the energy sector due to stranded energy supplies in the Persian Gulf. Crush margins around the Midwest climbed to a 2.5-year high during that period, fueled largely by soybean oil price gains.
USDA left 2025/26 U.S. soybean oil volumes consumed for BBD unchanged at 14 billion pounds, despite a 410-million-pound increase in 2025/26 soybean oil production (30.33 billion pounds) and a 50-million-pound decrease in soybean oil imports (315 million pounds) that boosted domestic supplies.
USDA adjusted soybean oil disappearance from food, feed and other industrial uses 300 million pounds higher to 15.35 billion pounds. The added supplies trickled through to ending stocks, which were elevated 60 million pounds to 1.842 billion pounds.
In this case, consumption increases and anticipated preparation for higher RVOs in the coming year outweighed higher supplies. USDA increased 2025/26 season average prices for soybean oil $0.04/lb. (7%) to $0.59/lb. Nearby May 2026 soybean oil futures prices rose $0.0028/lb. (0.4%) to $0.6770/lb. on USDA’s revisions, recouping some of the losses incurred after Monday’s three-year price high was erased on easing worries about geopolitical relations in the Persian Gulf.
The notable price increase reflects growing competition for domestic soybean oil usage and global energy market constraints due to the Iran War. With only a couple months before the 2026 RVOs are effective, the increase in expected soybean oil usage for BBD is already creating favorable price impacts for the soy industry.
Not to be outdone by its soybean oil counterpart, 2025/26 soymeal production was increased 800,000 short tons to 61.877 million short tons in the April 2026 WASDE. The volume of extra production was entirely consumed by a likewise increase in domestic disappearance, which USDA revised to 43.225 million short tons.
Even with large export volumes in the wake of crush capacity expansion, domestic consumption of soymeal continues at a rapid clip. This dynamic reflects larger poultry and pork production as high beef prices begin to push budget-conscious consumers towards more affordable protein options in the grocery store.
The rapid soymeal disappearance is a good sign for crush capacity expansion as well. It signals to investors that soymeal is not a limiting factor for crush expansion, which has largely been fueled by soybean oil demand for BBD production. Two sources of demand are better than one!
To reflect that sentiment, USDA increased the 2025/26 soymeal season average price by $10/ton in the April 2026 WASDE report, raising it to $310/ton. The nearby May 2026 soymeal futures contract closed Thursday’s trading session at $317.6/ton, up $3.5/ton (1.1%) from the prior day.
In recent trading sessions, soymeal price activity has detached slightly from energy market dynamics, with prices firming as export volumes in the Gulf increased and crush plants raised cash bids for whole soybean feedstocks. Soybean movement across the countryside is historically lower this time of year as farmers are preoccupied with spring planting activities.
The soy industry will continue to find a precarious balance between expanding oil production and excessive meal supplies. The higher input costs reflected this week combined with staggering price volatility due to conflicts in the Middle East and upcoming seasonal crush plant downtimes pushed some soymeal feed buyers to the sidelines this week, suggesting the top of recent soymeal rallies is within striking distance.
While USDA left 2025/26 Brazilian and Argentine soybean harvests unchanged at 180 MMT and 48 MMT, respectively, Brazil’s 2024/25 crop was revised 1 MMT higher to 172.5 MMT. Those bushels carried over into Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean balance sheet in the form of higher forecasted exports, which rose 1 MMT to 115 MMT.
Higher crush volumes for the U.S., Brazil, and Algeria and larger export volumes for Brazil and Argentina tightened global ending stocks by 0.5 MMT to 124.8 MMT, which was on the lower end of pre-report trade ranges (124.5 MMT – 126.36 MMT, with an average guess of 125.51 MMT).
Even though U.S. exports are slowing, global soy consumption continues to rise, increasingly fueled by South American soybeans.
