Higher U.S. shipments and stronger Chinese import forecasts outweighed larger production, helping soybean futures climb following Friday's USDA report. 

By Jacquie Holland, ASA Economist

USDA made minor changes to U.S. soy balance sheets in the July 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday, but the few revisions made were supportive of earlier price gains across the soybean complex.

Within 20 minutes of the report’s release, nearby August 2026 futures for soybeans rose $0.0925/bu. from Friday’s opening bell, closing the day’s trading session $0.1275/bu. (1.1%) higher to $11.905/bu. Following USDA’s report release, August 2026 soybean oil futures edged $0.0054/lb. higher from opening. For the day, the contract rose $0.005/lb. (0.7%) higher to $0.7042/lb.

Soymeal futures experienced the most price volatility, with the August 2026 contract jumping $5.7/ton higher from the opening price after USDA published updated estimates. Soymeal relinquished its WASDE-related price gains to close a mere $2.3/ton (0.7%) higher to $316.5/ton.

Ending stock soybean volumes both in the U.S. and globally, as well as for the current and new crop marketing years, came in below average pre-report estimates but well within trade ranges. As a result, the report was slightly bullish to neutral for soybean futures prices.

Old crop stocks shrink

Based on rapid recent shipping paces of U.S. soybeans harvest, USDA increased 2025/26 export volumes 10 million bushels to 1.52 billion bushels for the current marketing year. In USDA’s Quarterly Grains Report published June 30, June 1 inventories indicated approximately 24.8% of anticipated 2025/26 U.S. soybean consumption had occurred in the third quarter – an unusually high volume for that time of year.

The revision trimmed 2025/26 ending stocks by 10 million bushels, bringing old crop ending stocks to 330 million bushels and reducing the stocks-to-use ratio from nearly 8% to 7.7%. Even with the heightened old crop consumption forecast, USDA left season average soybean prices unchanged from the prior month at $10.40/bu.

Updated 2026 acreage absorbed by exports

USDA’s June 30 acreage report forecasted 2026 planted soybean acres nearly 700,000 acres higher to 85.4 million acres. The agency left yield forecasts unchanged at 53.0 bushels per acre (bpa), targeting the 2026 U.S. soy harvest at 4.475 billion bushels, 40 million bushels higher than June 2026 WASDE estimates and a new record high crop if realized.

Forecasters at USDA were unfazed by the added supplies, some of which were mitigated by the 10-million-bushel reduction in beginning stocks for 2026/27. Thanks to a recent flurry of export sales to China, USDA added 30 million bushels to 2026/27 export volumes, bringing the new crop total to 1.66 billion, up 9% from the previous year if summer weather cooperates.

The supply and consumption additions left new crop ending stocks unchanged from the prior month at 310 million bushels. Season average prices held steady at $11.40/bu.

All silent on the soybean oil front

USDA made several balance sheet adjustments to the U.S.’s 2025/26 soybean oil forecasts that ultimately left both old and new crop balance sheets unchanged. An additional 15 million pounds of imports and a consumption reduction of 50 million pounds in 2025/26 export volumes thwarted upward soybean oil price potential after USDA also added 65 million pounds to food, feed, and industrial uses.

The 65-million-pound addition brought total volumes of 2025/26 soybean oil consumed for food, feed, and industrial uses to 15.545 billion pounds. It also left 2025/26 ending stocks of soybean oil unchanged at 1.837 billion pounds, prompting USDA to leave season-average prices unchanged at $0.64/lb.

USDA made no changes to the 2026/27 soybean oil balance sheet. Season average prices also held steady at $0.70/lb. for a second straight month.

Soymeal shakeup

Both old and new crop soymeal balance sheets saw volume reshuffling in the July 2026 WASDE. USDA cut 2025/26 soymeal production by 15,000 short tons, transferring it to import volumes and bringing totals for both supply categories to 63.037 million short tons and 840,000 short tons, respectively.

USDA also moved 300,000 short tons of 2025/26 livestock and residual consumption directly to 2025/26 exports. U.S. soymeal prices continue to trend higher than Brazilian and Argentine counterparts, but slow Argentine farmer sales could reduce Argentina’s soy crushing and soymeal exporting paces, elevating U.S. supplies on the global stage.

Soymeal disappearance in the U.S. for 2025/26 dropped to 43.525 million short tons while export volumes rose to 20.3 million short tons on USDA’s balance sheet adjustments. Ending stocks were left at 450,000 short tons, and current marketing year average prices held steady at $315/ton.

Similar to old crop revisions, USDA also shuffled 40,000 short tons of new crop 2026/27 soymeal production into imports. Another 300,000 short tons of 2026/27 livestock and residual usage were transferred to export forecasts, bringing the totals for each to 43.825 million and 22 million short tons, respectively.

While USDA kept 2026/27 season average soymeal prices constant at $310/ton due to unchanged 2026/27 ending soymeal stock volumes (450,000 short tons), the futures market extended gains for a third consecutive trading session on the rising soymeal export volumes.

Global outlook heats up

With the larger U.S. 2026 soybean crop and expectations for Brazil to harvest 186 MMT in the 2026/27 marketing year, new marketing year export volumes for both of the world’s two largest soybean exporters were raised. USDA bumped up Brazil’s export volumes for next year by 0.5 MMT to 118 MMT in the July 2026 WASDE. With the additional U.S. exportable supplies, both countries will combine to ship an extra 1.3 MMT to global customers in the next year.

But USDA also left an important clue about where those soybeans may be headed. For the 2026/27 marketing year, USDA increased China’s import volumes by 1 MMT to 115 MMT, following an increase of 1 MMT to China’s 2025/26 soybean imports.

The additional usage forecasts pushed global 2026/27 soybean stocks to the lower end of pre-report trade expectations at 124.17 MMT. Similar to domestic soymeal export forecasts, the added Chinese demand continues to support bullish price activity for soybeans as peak pod fill periods approach throughout the Heartland.