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Sep 22, 2026
More Than 1,200 Growers Report High Concern, Thin Margins and Uncertainty Heading into 2027
Executive Summary A September 2026 Farm Journal survey commissioned by the National Corn Growers Association and the American Soybean Association shows that financial pressure remains widespread across corn and soybean farms. Nearly two-thirds of growers are moderately or very concerned about the farm economy, and 46% are more concerned about their farm financial situation than they were a year ago. Although both measures improved from the comparable 2025 survey, they continue to signal a situation of high concern rather than a return to financial stability.
Unlike the 2025 poll, the 2026 survey was conducted amid a major run-up in corn and soybean prices supporting grower sentiment, but higher prices do not immediately restore farm profitability. Growers entered the rally with different combinations of input costs, production commitments, early sales, and financial obligations spanning multiple crop cycles. The year-over-year improvement reflects better market conditions during the survey window rather than an end to the underlying financial strain.
Growers are responding in different ways: some purchased inputs before the spring fertilizer price spike, some maintained their normal rotations, and others reduced nutrient rates or shifted acres. Fuel, energy and fertilizer are the leading input concerns for 2027, while many growers have not yet decided how they will respond.
Higher Prices Do Not Immediately Restore Farm Profitability A higher market price today does not mean every grower can benefit equally from the increase, nor does it erase financial pressure accumulated over several years of tight margins. Farm cash flow does not follow a single calendar year. Growers may still be marketing one crop, harvesting another, and purchasing inputs for the next, with costs and revenues spanning multiple production cycles. The timing of the survey is critical to interpreting the year-over-year results. The 2026 price rally supported expectations and reduced some immediate anxiety relative to 2025, but survey responses show that concern remains broad and margins remain thin. The comparison reflects stronger market conditions during the survey period, not an end to underlying financial strain.
Concern Remains High Despite Improved Market Conditions Concern for the industry remains widespread. In September 2026, 40% of growers described themselves as very concerned about the farm economy and another 26% as moderately concerned, for a combined 66%. Those shares were lower than in the comparable 2025 survey, when 49% were very concerned, and 27% were moderately concerned, a combined 76%. Even with that shift, roughly two out of every three growers continue to report meaningful concern.
Grower assessments of their own farm financials show a similar pattern. This year, 46% are more concerned than a year earlier, and 9% are less concerned. In 2025, those shares were 65% and 4%, respectively, meaning growers in 2026 were comparing against an already difficult 2025. The year-over-year improvement should be interpreted carefully because the comparison year changed. A lower percentage doesn’t necessarily indicate stronger financial conditions; growers in 2026 were evaluating their situation against the difficult conditions of 2025, rather than 2024. And still, for every one grower who is less concerned about their farm financial situation than a year ago, nearly five growers are more concerned.
Profitability Expectations Show Little Cushion Expectations for the 2026 crop leave little room to absorb additional cost increases. For corn, 41% of growers expect marginal profitability and 10% expect clear profitability. Another 28% expect to break even, while 14% anticipate a loss and 7% remain unsure. Soybean expectations are somewhat stronger: 43% expect marginal profitability and 13% expect clear profitability, compared with 24% at break-even, 13% expecting a loss, and 7% unsure. For both crops, producers are expecting to earn little to no return from their fields, with a small share realizing losses or clear profits. Respondents are largely expecting to just cover costs with the current crop, despite higher crop prices.
Profitability this year doesn’t necessarily signal financial stability. Most positive responses fall in the marginally profitable category, and a substantial share of growers remain near break-even. With margins this narrow, changes in fuel, fertilizer, interest or other production costs can quickly alter the outlook for either crop. NCGA’s recent analysis, Higher Corn Prices Don’t Immediately Solve Farm Profitability Challenges, explains why: farm outcomes reflect input purchases, production commitments and grain-marketing decisions made across overlapping crop cycles. Many growers therefore entered the price rally with costs already incurred, crops already marketed, or limited ability to capture the full increase.
When Fertilizer Prices Spiked, Many Decisions Were Already Made The fertilizer price spike resulting from restricted global trade through the Strait of Hormuz didn’t necessarily mean last-minute agronomic changes. Many (35%) corn and soybean growers had already made key production decisions. One-third of respondents reported maintaining their normal rotation or making no changes, a stand-alone response indicating that the fertilizer spike didn’t alter their plans.
Among growers who reported making adjustments, responses varied. More than one-third had already priced or purchased inputs before the spring fertilizer spike, although some of those still make additional changes. Of the total survey respondents, 17% cut phosphate rates, 16% cut nitrogen rates and 12% shifted planned acres away from corn. Because respondents could select more than one of these responses, the percentages represent overlapping decisions rather than mutually exclusive groups.
Responses varied by operation size. Growers managing 2,500 or more corn and soybean acres were less likely than the smallest operations to maintain their normal rotation without changes and more likely to shift acres away from corn. Purchasing timing, existing commitments and operational flexibility all shaped how the same market shock translated into farm-level decisions.
Inputs Risk Extends into 2027 Growers are already looking beyond the current crop. On a five-point scale where 5 indicates “very concerned,” fuel and energy ranked as the top 2027 input concern, averaging 4.16 on a five-point scale, while fertilizer also averaged above 4. Both ranked well ahead of land rent and seed, suggesting fuel, energy, and fertilizer remain the biggest sources of input-cost stress heading into 2027.
Planning responses remain divided with “not sure yet” as the most common answer, selected by 26% of respondents. Growers were about as likely to say they would lock in purchases early as to expect no change. Many decisions remain open as growers wait for greater clarity on input prices, crop prices, input availability and the financial position carried forward from 2026.
What the Results Mean The survey captures a farm economy under pressure even as commodity markets improve. The recent price rally may have eased concern from last year’s levels, but any benefits won’t reach all farms evenly or immediately. Each farm operation enters the current period with a different mix of input costs, production commitments, crops already marketed, and financial obligations spanning multiple crop cycles. Those realities help explain why concern remains high and why many growers are either not yet ready to change their 2027 plans, or don’t know yet what that change would look like.
For policymakers and the agricultural supply chain, the survey highlights how sensitive farm profitability remains to pressure from fuel, energy, fertilizer, and other production costs. Periods of narrow margins become far more difficult to manage when key production costs are highly uncertain. Supply disruptions in input and energy markets create uncertainty weaken the financial resilience of corn and soybean farms.
About the Survey This report is jointly published by the National Corn Growers Association and the American Soybean Association. Farm Journal conducted the poll, which includes responses from more than 1,200 corn and soybean growers collected between September 1-8, 2026. Results were analyzed overall and by region and operation size. For single-select questions, percentages show the distribution of responses within each group. For select-all-that-apply questions, percentages show the share selecting each option and therefore do not sum to 100%. Input-concern averages exclude “not applicable” responses.
