By Jacquie Holland, ASA Economist

The markets largely yawned at the March 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report published Tuesday. While no major supply revisions were expected by USDA, the resulting usage adjustments did little to revive new crop (2025) soybean futures prices that had previously fallen to a two-month low on trade war jitters last Tuesday.

Minor revisions were made to the residual categories of the 2023/24 and 2024/25 soybean balance sheets to account for slightly lower 2023/24 crush volumes and smaller expected 2024/25 seed production. The residual adjustments left 2024/25 domestic ending stocks unchanged from previous estimates at 380 million bushels.

Soybean futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade wavered about $0.03-$0.05/bushel between gains and losses following the report's release, with nearby contracts closing Tuesday's trading session down about $0.03/bushel. Ultimately, another day of losses on Wall Street due to jitters about U.S. recession risks weighed heavily on the U.S. soy complex.

Average farm prices for soybeans were reduced by $0.15/bushel from past estimates to $9.95/bushel—the lowest average annual price received by U.S. soybean farmers since 2019/20. Chairman of USDA's World Ag Outlook Board Mark Jekanowski remarked that tariff uncertainty remains a risk for prices, noting about 75% of the U.S. 2024 crop was marketed through January at $10/bu.

WAOB staff did note WASDE estimates only consider trade policies that are in effect at the time of publication. Canada’s retaliatory tariffs were considered “policy in place” in the March 2025 WASDE report, so affected commodities were adjusted in this month’s report.

Since “U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been suspended until April 2 for all products covered under USMCA, which include most agriculture products in the WASDE,” the WAOB did not incorporate those tariff actions or reciprocal tariffs into the commodity forecast. WAOB will revise those estimates accordingly if those policies are formally enacted or if a formal end date is specified.

USDA left its production estimates for Brazilian and Argentine soybeans unchanged at 169 MMT and 49 MMT, respectively. Amidst the large South American supply, USDA increased global soybean usage due to rising crush rates in China and Southeast Asia. As a result, global 2024/25 ending soybean stocks tightened by nearly 3 MMT.

Soyoil prices see slight boost from U.S. exports before Wall Street weakness spills over

The U.S. soyoil balance sheet saw the most excitement in the March 2025 WASDE report series, but the resulting changes were not enough to offset bearish price pressure that spilled over from financial markets on Tuesday. USDA trimmed 2023/24 soyoil production by 37 million pounds and reduced 2023/24 food, feed and other usage by 87 million pounds, resulting in a 50-million-pound increase to 2024/25 beginning stocks.

USDA then slashed 2024/25 soyoil usage for biofuel production by 150 million pounds, dropping it to 13.45 billion pounds. Since the January 2025 WASDE report, USDA has decreased the expected 2024/25 U.S. soyoil consumption for biofuels by 55 million pounds—a 4% decline—because of 45Z policy uncertainty, as well as competition from soyoil exports and other feedstocks.

Following a 15-year-high monthly soyoil export volume recorded in January, USDA added 200 million pounds to 2024/25 soyoil export prospects in the March 2025 WASDE. Soyoil export volumes are now projected at 1.8 billion pounds—a five-year high that offsets larger carry-over inventories and reduced biofuel consumption to keep U.S. soyoil ending stocks unchanged at 1.53 billion pounds for the 2024/25 marketing year.

Globally, soyoil production increases in Argentina and China and higher imports forecasted for top global edible oil buyer India will increase global ending stocks by nearly 1 MMT. The ample supply availability and reduced domestic usage from the U.S. could keep U.S. soyoil export prices competitive with palm oil substitutes on the global market.

USDA kept U.S. soyoil prices unchanged at $0.43/lb. following its global and domestic revisions. Nearby Chicago futures prices initially rose $0.0016/lb. following the WASDE release and its export optimism but ended the day down nearly 1% to $0.4187/lb. on broad financial market bearishness and reduced confidence in U.S. renewable diesel consumption of soyoil.

U.S. soymeal prices miss out on global consumption increase

While it was a quiet WASDE report for the entire soy complex, soymeal balance sheet changes were exceptionally quiet. USDA revised 2023/24 production down by 39K short tons, but that reduction was offset by an identical cut to 2023/24 domestic disappearance, leading USDA to leave 2024/25 average U.S. soymeal prices unmoved at $310/ton.

Despite a quiet U.S. soymeal balance sheet in the March 2025 WASDE, the uptick in global soy crush and soyoil production meant global soymeal production also rose, adding over 2.3 MMT from the previous month’s estimates to bring global soymeal production estimates to 276.9 MMT. Even with increases to global consumption and export volumes—notably an increase in European Union soymeal imports—global 2024/25 soymeal ending stocks rose nearly 3% to 17.35 MMT.

Nearby May 2025 Chicago soymeal futures contracts closed Tuesday's trading session down $0.6/ton to $301.6/ton after the March 2025 WASDE pointed to plentiful global soymeal supplies. USDA forecasted average U.S. soymeal prices to stay unchanged at $310/ton for the 2024/25 soymeal marketing year.