By Jacquie Holland, ASA Economist

USDA made minor cuts to 2025 soybean acreage, which helped minimize losses from disappointing June 1 inventories.

While USDA’s June 30 Acreage report generated a lot of buzz leading up to the report’s release, it was the Quarterly Grain Stocks report that stole the show in USDA’s latest report series published Monday.

USDA found 1.008 billion bushels of soybeans on hand as of June 1, 2025, up 4% from the same time a year earlier and the largest March 1 – June 1 (Q3) soybean stocks reading since the 2019/20 marketing year. USDA also revised the March 1 off-farm stocks inventory upwards by 887,000 bushels, reflecting lower usage rates than what had previously been reported.

The pre-report trade forecast ranged between 950 million and 1.130 billion bushels with an average estimate of 980 million bushels. Between the March 1 stocks increase and the lower-than-expected usage volumes in Q3, the markets were expecting to see quarterly usage rates ending June 1 to be over 55 million bushels higher than USDA’s forecasts.

USDA’s soybean inventory figures came in on the high end of expectations, meaning usage levels across the U.S. this spring have been lower than what was previously anticipated by the market. Old crop soybean futures prices responded in kind, relinquishing a 1% daily price gain prior to the report’s release before closing Monday’s trading session at a 0.25% loss.

July 2025 soybean futures prices shed $0.035/bu. to $10.2425/bu. in the report’s aftermath while August 2025 futures fell $0.0275/bu. to $10.305/bu. at last glance. New crop November 2025 futures also gave up early morning gains but managed to close $0.0275/bu. higher to $10.275/bu. thanks to slight acreage reductions forecasted by USDA’s Acreage Report.

A usage conundrum

March 1 – June 1 soybean usage calculated out to 903 million bushels, while December 1, 2024 – March 1, 2025 (Q2) consumption was trimmed to 1.189 billion bushels. The revisions pushed Q2 soybean usage down slightly to 26.9% of expected 2024/25 consumption (4.414 billion bushels) while Q3 disappearance registered at 20.5% of expected current marketing year usage, the smallest volume for both Q2 and Q3 since 2020/21.

Traditionally, U.S. soybean export volumes taper off between the March 1 and June 1 reporting period. This year’s seasonal lull in export shipments beginning in the spring coincided with an unseasonal sharp downturn in crush margins, which disincentivized crush volumes.

Crush margins in Central Illinois averaged $1.11/bu. during March 2025 before rebounding slightly to $1.35/bu. in April and $1.28/bu. in May. As a result, daily average crush rates as reported by NOPA slowed by 3% from the prior quarter during Q3.

Despite the market calling for higher usage volumes ahead of Monday’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report, inventory data indicates soybean consumption volumes have not been as strong between Dec. 1, 2024, and June 1, 2025, as the market anticipated. Plentiful soybean supplies are available for usage in the last two months of the current marketing year and a rebound in crush margin values in the second half of June could revive usage levels in the coming weeks.

Markets will be keeping a close eye on the upcoming July 11 WASDE report, which will likely be revised to show usage and ending stocks adjustments for the 2024/25 marketing year to reflect updated Quarterly Stocks values.

USDA makes minor acreage tweaks

USDA’s Acreage Report was the talk of the industry leading up to Monday’s publication, though the numbers did not live up to the hype compared to the Quarterly Grain Stocks findings.

USDA revised 2025 planted soybean forecasts 115,000 acres lower to 83.38 million acres. Pre-report trade forecasts estimated a range between 82.5 million to 85.3 million acres leading up to the report’s release, with an average trade guess of 83.655 million acres.

While the slightly lower 2025 soybean acreage number was not what most market watchers had expected, the market rewarded new crop soybean futures on the prospect of a slightly smaller crop size. USDA forecasted harvested 2025 soybean acreage at 82.535 million acres, down from 82.7 million acres forecasted in the May 2025 WASDE report.

If USDA’s trendline yield is applied to those 165,000 fewer acres, farmers can expect the total 2025 U.S. soybean crop to shrink by approximately 8.7 million bushels (0.2%) this fall to 4.333 billion bushels. If those trendline yields hold, it will be the fifth largest soybean crop in U.S. history.

Due to the slightly smaller harvested acreage, new crop November 2025 soybean futures closed Monday’s trading session $0.0275/bu. higher to $10.275/bu. despite paring larger gains from the early morning session due to USDA’s lackluster soybean usage forecasts.

State-by-state shakeups

While top soybean producing state Illinois did not see a significant change in planted soybean acreage this spring, Iowa and Indiana shuffled 100,000 acres and 200,000 acres of soybeans, respectively, out of rotations this spring to lead soybean supply prospects lower in 2025.

North Dakota added 400,000 soybean acres this spring but the added volume from the Roughrider State was not enough to offset lower acreages across the Eastern Corn Belt and Mississippi River Delta.

Rain delays upended planting progress in the Eastern Corn Belt, causing acreage contractions of 200,000 acres in both Indiana and Ohio and 150,000 acres in Michigan. The Mississippi Delta also saw sharp acreage declines from March 31 Prospective Planting forecasts, with Mississippi and Arkansas reducing their acreages by 200,000 acres and 100,000 acres, respectively.

The smaller acreages mean new crop soybean futures prices will be especially responsive to weather events in the weeks ahead. If drought stress persists in key growing areas during the peak pod fill period in early August, an outsized upwards price reaction could occur in the new crop futures market because of the prospect of reduced supplies.

On the other hand, if weather conditions are favorable to the crop during that time and without fresh consumption support from export markets and domestic crush plants, soybeans could struggle to maintain current price levels as harvest approaches.