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Feb 20, 2026
By Jacquie Holland, ASA Economist
USDA published a first look at 2026 acreage ahead of Thursday’s Agricultural Outlook Forum, which featured an uptick in soybean acres forecasted to be planted in the U.S. during the upcoming growing season.
The additional soybean supplies expected to be produced in 2026 did not stop a three-day rally in Chicago futures prices, though it may have slowed the rally’s momentum as the trading week nears its close. At last glance, the nearby March 2026 Chicago soybean futures contract traded at a three-month high of $11.3925/bu. by early Thursday afternoon amid USDA’s forecasts and competing market sentiments.
On-farm economics drive shift to soy from corn
USDA forecasted 2026 soybean acreage at 85.0 million acres, up 3.8 million acres (4.7%) from 2025 sowings. Alternatively, corn acres are expected to fall 4.8 million acres (4.8%) from the prior year’s growing season to 94.0 million acres in 2026 as production costs and crop prices readjust to new acreage outlay.
USDA’s latest Farm Income Forecasts published earlier this month projects inflation-adjusted production expenses at $477.7 billion for the 2026 calendar year. Even though nominal input costs are forecast to increase this year, the real value of 2026 production costs are slated to decrease 0.9% from the prior year after inflation adjustments are taken into account.
Row crop producers could see some revenue relief as well. USDA’s season average price for 2026/27 soybeans is expected to increase a dime from the current marketing year to $10.30/bu.
“The story for the year is progress being made on the price,” USDA Chief Economist Justin Benavidez told audience members at USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum on Thursday in Arlington, Virginia. “We’re not hitting it out of the park. We’re not solving everyone's problems in terms of pricing overnight, but price is generally expected to move modestly higher.”
But will it be enough?
USDA’s current cost of production estimates published in December 2025 paired with the updated acreage and pricing forecasts published early Thursday morning point to another year of tight margins for U.S. soybean and corn producers, which will be a key driver in the acreage shift to soy. ASA calculations find farmers could face approximately $139/acre in losses from soybean acreage this year at USDA’s current forecasts.
While that figure represents a $16/acre increase in losses from 2025 cost of production forecasts for U.S. soybean producers, it is nearly $74/acre less than the per acre losses USDA expects corn producers will face this year. USDA’s data suggests corn producers will incur a $213/acre loss on 2026 corn acreage.
These figures are calculated using nominal values, which point to slightly lower losses in 2025 in these estimates. However, even after adjusting 2025 losses for inflation, soybean and corn producers are still facing higher losses in 2026 relative to the prior year. USDA could make revisions to the per acre total cost forecasts to reflect changes in the market since the estimates were published in December 2025 though it seems likely the changes are not going to eliminate production losses for soybean producers in 2026.
Despite both crops facing higher losses than last year, the lower losses for soybeans could make beans a less punishing option for row crop producers this spring. High nitrogen prices could be a constraining factor for corn producers with the ability to shift acreage rotations. In Illinois, retail nitrogen prices for anhydrous ammonia and liquid nitrogen have averaged between 17% and 36% higher during the winter months than in the year prior.
Phosphate prices are also higher than a year ago, but to a lesser degree than their nitrogen counterparts. Average retail DAP prices in Illinois during this winter are 16% higher than a year ago while MAP prices are running 13% higher during that period.
As end users continue to chew through surplus corn supplies—following a record-shattering 2025 U.S. corn harvest and the largest U.S. corn acreage planted in 89 years— growers located on fringe acreages are likely to consider demand dynamics in their price forecasting as they plan 2026 acres.
What to do with extra bushels?
Holding 2026 yields constant at the prior year’s record of 53.0 bpa, USDA forecasts 2026 U.S. soybean production at 4.45 billion bushels. If realized, it would trail the 2021 record of 4.46 billion bushels as the second largest soybean harvest in the U.S. It would also mark an approximately 188-million-bushel (4.4%) annual increase in U.S. soybean production.
Nearly half of the additional soybean bushels USDA expects to be produced next year will be routed to U.S. crush plants. USDA expects domestic crush volumes will grow 85 million bushels (3.3%) from the prior year in 2026/27 to 2.655 billion bushels.
Domestic consumption will be a key driver of increasing USDA’s expectations for 2026/27 average farm prices for soybeans, which are forecast up a dime from the prior year to $10.30/bushel. This price forecast will be heavily dependent upon another end user of U.S. soybeans.
USDA forecasts 2026/27 U.S. soybean exports at 1.7 billion bushels, up a staggering 125 million bushels (8%) from current marketing year volumes. Amid ongoing trade disputes with China, 2025/26 U.S. soybeans are expected to drop to 1.575 billion bushels, the smallest annual U.S. soybean export volume since the catastrophic 2012 drought.
While other countries have increased volumes of U.S. soybean purchases during the 2025/26 marketing year, top global soybean buyer China has booked limited sales of U.S. soybeans. As a cheap South American crop enters export channels in the coming weeks, consumption and pricing of 2026/27 U.S. soybeans will depend largely on trade negotiations with China.
What’s fueling daily soy price gains?
Following USDA’s data release citing higher 2026 soybean acres and supplies, daily soybean futures price increases were partially attributed to continued market optimism for additional Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans. The soy complex also derived strength from a rally in soybean oil prices, which were propped up by gains in the energy sector due to trader worries about an uptick in U.S. and Iran military activity in Iran’s oil-producing region.
USDA’s forecasts, which are not derived from the farmer surveys, satellite imagery, nor objective surveys characterized by finalized 2025 data, were largely aligned with traders’ pre-report expectations. Trade guesses ranged between 83.5 million to 86.0 million acres with an average estimate of 84.9 million acres, providing little additional sentiments to support upward price movement for the soybean futures market following USDA’s data release.
Even though higher prices persisted in the futures market following USDA’s updated forecasts, other signs during Thursday’s trading session suggested the rally may be losing momentum. Though Southern Brazil’s ongoing soybean harvest has been slowed by rains in recent weeks, favorable weather conditions during the crop’s maturation stage in Central-West and Southern Brazil have sealed the fate of another record soybean crop for Brazil in 2025/26.
Idyllic weather conditions across South America in recent months suggests Brazil may not be the only country in the MERCOSUR bloc to give U.S. soybean producers heartburn during the 2026 growing season. As Brazil closes in on a record-breaking 180 MMT, Paraguay is also looking at a record high crop forecasted at 11.5 MMT. Argentina recently enjoyed—and is expecting more—cooler temperatures and rains during its peak pod-fill period, which bodes favorably for yields to support a 48.5 MMT harvest.
The U.S. soy complex will need demand sentiments to come to fruition in the year ahead to support the production uptick forecasted by USDA’s estimates published Thursday.
